Domestic Terrorism Report SEC/461

Risk assessment

Domestic Terrorism Report SEC/461

Instructions:

Assume the role of the security manager for the Cardinals Stadium. As the manager, you must prepare for an upcoming football event where more than 60,000 fans will be on hand.
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Use the FEMA Risk Assessment model that is attached to objectively assess each risk; additionally I\’ve posted additional assignment guidance in the announcements section of the classroom (BE SURE TO CHECK THEM OUT!):
• Five man terrorist attack using assault rifles prior to entering the stadium
• Chemical release of nerve agent inside the stadium
• Simultaneous detonation of bombs planted by employees
• Cyber-attack controlling all power in the stadium
• Riot involving approximately 100 patrons
Calculate the risk for each threat and identify existing countermeasures.
Write a 1,400- to 1,750-word proposal that assesses the current vulnerability of the critical asset. Consider the threats identified, the calculated risk, assailant objectives and deployment capabilities. Based on current countermeasures, determine if the vulnerability is reasonable and offer additional countermeasures to mitigate the risk.

Solution

Domestic Terrorism Report SEC/461

            The cardinals’ stadium is a football stadium that dates back to the 2002. The cost of its construction was around $455 million. The stadium is built on a 28 acre piece of land and it contains retractable sides, roof and field that moves in and out. Twenty five percent of the amount used in its construction was paid by the cardinals themselves while the rest was paid by the national tourism and sports authority. The costs spend on this stadium warrant good mitigation measures to be put in place to avoid excessive destructions in case of terrorism attacks. This proposal presents a risk assessment schedule for the stadium and then proposes probable counter measures (“University of Phoenix Stadium” 2017).

            In performing risk assessment, various methods are used. In this proposal, FEMA risk assessment model is used to assess risks associated with cardinals’ stadium and the mitigation measures identified.  FEMA model is made up of five stages – threat identification and rating, Asset value assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and mitigation options (“Risk Assessment” 2005). The remaining portion analyses each of the stages in relation to cardinals.

Threat identification and rating

            In this stage, the threat is identified, described and quantified.

Five man terrorist attack using assault rifles prior to entering the stadium

This is an armed attack that is aimed at funs at the stadium. This threat can be easily executed since assault rifles are readily acquired and some are imported from other countries by terrorism groups. Since the main aim of terrorist attacks is to destabilize the government or people in an event, it is possible that this attack on the stadium can be implemented.  More so, a stadium is a place that is well known and can be easily accessed because it is visited by different people. The primary threat is shown in table 1 while threat rating is shown in table 2.

Chemical release of nerve agent inside the stadium

This is a chemical agent threat that involves nerve agent inside the stadium. Nerve agents affect the nerve system and impulse. This threat can be easily implemented since the chemical materials for manufacturing nerve agents are inexpensive and easily available. The primary threat is shown in table 1 while threat rating is shown in table 2.

Simultaneous detonation of bombs planted by employees

This is an improvised explosive device threat. This type of attack can be easily perpetrated since bombs are planted by internal employees. Internal employees are people who understand the setting of the stadium and it is rare to suspect any fishy behavior from employees. The primary threat is shown in table 1 while threat rating is shown in table 2.
Cyber-attack controlling all power in the stadium

This is a cyber-attack threat perpetrated using computers and the network. With the increase in technology and sophisticated hackers, cyber-attacks are easily perpetrated. In fact, they form the most common types of attacks. The primary threat is shown in table 1 while threat rating is shown in table 2.

Riot involving approximately 100 patrons

The threat in this case is riots. Riots are a common aspect associated with games. Most of these threats arise from differences between different teams in terms of scores attained. In case of any unfairness, most team members and their patrons may retort to riots that can cause destructions. The primary threat is shown in table 1 while threat rating is shown in table 2.

Table 1

scenerio	Access to agent	Knowledge / expertise	History of threats	Asset visibility	Asset accessibility	Cite population	Collateral damage	score
Armed attack	9	9	1	9	8	10	2	48
Nerval chemical agent	10	9	1	9	9	10	1	49
Improvised explosive device	9	9	1	9	9	10	2	49
Cyber attack	9	9	1	9	9	10	1	48
Riots	10	9	2	9	9	10	1	50

Table 2

Infrastructure	Armed attack	Nerve chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
Spectator areas	9	7	8	6	8
Pitch	9	8	8	6	7
Communication system	8	7	9	8	5
Electrical system	7	7	8	7	6
Alarms	7	7	7	7	5

Asset value assessment

            Asset value assessment involves identification of the stadiums facilities that should be protected. The table below shows the layers of defense in relation to the threats. First layer defense involved facilities that are in the environment of the stadium, second layer defense involves the facilities found between the perimeter of the stadium and the first layer facilities while third layer facilities are those that are found inside the stadium.

	Armed attack	Nerval chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
First layer defense
The stadium is in view of other buildings around
Stadium close to vegetation
Lack of fencing and physical barriers
Insecure roads to the stadium
Lack of control at the entry
Lack of pullovers during vehicle inspection
Second layer defense
Lack of enough distance from the stadium perimeter wall to the surrounding buildings
High risk resources too close
Unwanted concealments
Availability of unwanted surveillance
No packing surveillance
Lack of lighting
Third layer defense
Inappropriate access to forbidden or private places of the stadium
Weak walls
Unreinforced gate
Poor lighting
Lack of power backup

The stadium is a recreational facility set to host many funs who come to watch their football. A stadium being a recreational facility helps in collecting revenue for the government. Since it is a source of revenue for the government, a lot of resources are put in by both the government and non-governmental organizations for maintenance. In case the stadium is attacked, important assets, including people will be destroyed. In case any of the terrorist attacks takes place, then almost 60, 000 fans and players will be injured. If the football pitch is destroyed then it will cripple all the activities that take place in the stadium. This will in turn reduce revenue. Reconstruction of such a stadium may take a while due to lack of funds. Apart from the facilities in the pitch, a terrorist attack may cause death of people. Deaths and destruction of facilities may cost the government millions of money to rebuild the stadium to make it functional again. The table below shows the asset values with respect to the stadiums infrastructure.

Infrastructure	Armed attack	Nerve chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
Spectator areas	8	8	8	7	8
Pitch	9	9	9	8	8
Communication system	10	9	9	8	8
Electrical system	10	10	10	8	10
Alarms	8	10	10	8	8

Vulnerability assessment

Vulnerability assessment involves assessing the critical assets of the stadium with respect to the threats identified. Before vulnerability of critical assets is calculated, an assessment agenda has to be identified, site assessment done then vulnerability rating conducted. The table below shows vulnerability rating for the stadium.

Infrastructure	Armed attack	Nerve chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
Spectator areas	8	9	8	3	6
Pitch	10	10	9	6	6
Communication system	6	9	9	9	6
Electrical system	9	9	9	9	6
Alarms	6	6	6	6	6

Risk assessment

            This stage involves assessment of assets in relation to asset value, vulnerability rating and threat rating. Before calculation of risk, a risk matrix based on vulnerability, asset value and threat has to be constructed. The table below shows risk assessment matrix for the stadium.

Infrastructure	Armed attack	Nerve chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
Spectator areas
Asset value	8	8	8	7	8
Threat rating	9	7	8	6	8
Vulnerability rating	8	9	8	3	6
Pitch
Asset value	9	9	9	8	8
Threat rating	9	8	8	6	7
Vulnerability rating	10	10	9	6	6
Communication system
Asset value	10	9	9	8	8
Threat rating	8	7	9	8	5
Vulnerability rating	6	9	9	9	6
Electrical system
Asset value	10	10	10	8	10
Threat rating	7	7	8	7	6
Vulnerability rating	9	9	9	9	6
Alarms
Asset value	8	10	10	8	8
Threat rating	7	7	7	7	5
Vulnerability rating	8	10	10	8	8

Risk can be described as the potential for a damage to take place. The calculation of risk is based on the threats, the vulnerabilities and the assets. Risk assessment analyzes the threat in relation to the value and vulnerabilities in order to get the level of risk.

Risk = vulnerability rating * threat rating * asset value.

Multiplying the three aspects forms the total risk which is assigned color code in the table. The table below shows the risk ratings for the stadium.

Infrastructure	Armed attack	Nerve chemical agent	Improvised explosive device	Cyber attack	riots
Spectator areas	576	504	512	126	384
Asset value	8	8	8	7	8
Threat rating	9	7	8	6	8
Vulnerability rating	8	9	8	3	6
Pitch	810	720	648	288	336
Asset value	9	9	9	8	8
Threat rating	9	8	8	6	7
Vulnerability rating	10	10	9	6	6
Communication system	480	567	729	576	240
Asset value	10	9	9	8	8
Threat rating	8	7	9	8	5
Vulnerability rating	6	9	9	9	6
Electrical system	630	630	720	504	360
Asset value	10	10	10	8	10
Threat rating	7	7	8	7	6
Vulnerability rating	9	9	9	9	6
Alarms	448	700	700	448	320
Asset value	8	10	10	8	8
Threat rating	7	7	7	7	5
Vulnerability rating	8	10	10	8	8

	Low risk	Medium risk	High risk
Risk factor	1 – 350	351 – 600	≥ 601

Mitigation options

In this stage, the mitigation mechanisms that can be used to reduce destruction in case any of the above threats take place are identified. According to the vulnerability assessment, it seems the pitch, communication system and electricity are more vulnerable than any other infrastructures. For this reason, pitch, communication systems, electrical system proved to be highly at risk than the other infrastructures. Since reviving the stadium after the stadium has been destroyed can be a bit costly, proper mitigation measures must be put in place to reduce occurrence of the risks. They include limitation of the size luggage that can be brought in the stadium. To ensure security of fans bags must be kept at smaller sizes and thoroughly inspected. They should not carry alcoholic beverages to the stadium to encourage peace during football matches (”Arizona Cardinals 2016 A-Z Guide”, 2016). Apart from the above policies, more good surveillance cameras should be installed outside the stadium to ensure outside security. Employees should also be thoroughly inspected and their moves watched through CCTV cameras for any suspicious behavior.

References

”Arizona Cardinals 2016 A-Z Guide” (2016). Retrieved from          http://www.azcardinals.com/stadium/a-to-z-guide.html

“Risk Assessment – A How-To Guide to Mitigate Potential Terrorist Attacks
            against Buildings”, (2005). FEMA 452

“University of Phoenix Stadium” (2017). Retrieved from             http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/stadiums/university-of-phoenix-stadium/